Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 30.632756 34.256724 38.454010 43.756880 50.403152 58.641800 69.946583
2025-03-30 25.502123 29.986637 35.671643 43.688757 55.239102 72.321443 102.124289
2025-04-06 21.869539 26.567273 32.895159 42.555287 58.090515 84.975762 145.561472
2025-04-13 20.338454 25.496626 32.875765 45.121924 67.458989 114.881468 278.042282
2025-04-20 18.464361 23.598616 31.226655 44.604461 71.299343 138.210738 507.563095
2025-04-27 17.180284 22.341893 30.280384 44.952918 77.020594 174.263877 1453.148115
2025-05-04 16.176376 21.356502 29.570768 45.501373 83.553038 226.508310 196905.750319
2025-05-11 15.270037 20.405932 28.755246 45.615900 89.206879 293.810411 NaN
2025-05-18 14.373959 19.375524 27.653752 44.878579 92.237463 364.045356 NaN
2025-05-25 13.727012 18.680802 27.045270 45.052145 98.331181 504.929673 NaN
2025-06-01 13.091331 17.947152 26.274443 44.692792 102.624714 694.488500 NaN
2025-06-08 12.500175 17.240128 25.473371 44.101714 105.907742 972.762336 NaN
2025-06-15 11.959101 16.587997 24.726829 43.550176 109.442866 1505.697854 NaN
2025-06-22 11.493023 16.032100 24.110969 43.217765 114.007052 2932.360915 NaN
2025-06-29 10.975791 15.356693 23.204915 41.991392 113.827741 4978.146882 NaN
2025-07-06 10.868873 15.380369 23.664717 44.444673 134.904101 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.489606 14.901785 23.073686 43.915524 139.215581 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.215661 14.593220 22.800918 44.243873 149.850246 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.978056 14.334899 22.607558 44.772804 163.307493 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.723710 14.031743 22.293550 44.881981 174.392771 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.424310 13.631719 21.743316 44.163235 177.803505 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.209523 13.376122 21.484169 44.331748 190.686963 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.971611 13.066677 21.085633 43.981705 198.359361 NaN NaN